Abstract
Introduction. Disorders of the coagulation system occupy one of the leading positions of the new coronavirus infection. Characterized by an unpredictable onset, they in most percent of cases lead to early decompensation and death of patients with a high morbid profile. Despite the presence of a large number of studies devoted to diagnosis and treatment, issues related to screening, early verification remain controversial and unresolved. The aim of the study was to evaluate the possibility of predicting the development of venous thromboembolic complication (VTE) in a group of patients against the background of a new coronavirus infection.
Material and methods. Our research is based on a mathematical analysis of protocols of publicly available laboratory and instrumental research methods taken from the case histories of patients undergoing inpatient treatment in COVID hospitals in Nizhny Novgorod. The total group of respondents included 45 patients, who were subsequently divided into two subgroups depending on the presence or absence of verifiable episodes of pulmonary emboly (PE). So, the first group consisted of 15 people who developed massive PE on the background of COVID-associated polysegmental pneumonia. The second group was represented by 30 respondents who had suffered pneumonia not complicated by the development of PE. It should be noted that all the patients presented had identical volumes of lung parenchyma lesion, had a similar premorbid status and belonged to an identical age-sex cohort.
Results. In the course of the study, mathematical processing of the material under consideration was carried out using Bayes' theorem and Fourier's theorem, which ultimately made it possible to determine the possibility of predicting the development of pulmonary embolism in the considered group of patients.
Conclusion. The presented data allow us to note that the identification of a high probability of the development of VTE according to general clinical laboratory data in patients with a new coronavirus infection will allow timely verification of the correct diagnosis, to argue the vector of further follow-up, as well as to accept the correct treatment option.
References
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***
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About the authors
- Lev P. Kogan, Cand. Phys.-Math. Sci., Associate Professor of the Chair; ORCID
- Sergey A. Fedorov, Cand. Med. Sci., Cardiovascular Surgeon; ORCID
- Aleksandr E. Vol’vach, Dr. Phys.-Math. Sci., Deputy Director for Scientific Work; ORCID
- Aleksandr S. Gordetsov, Dr. Med. Sci., Professor, Head of the Department; ORCID
- Ol’ga V. Krasnikova, Cand. Biol. Sci., Associate Professor of Chair; ORCID
- Vladimir A. Chiginev, Dr. Med. Sci., Cardiovascular Surgeon; ORCID
- Natal’ya I. Grishina, Clinical Resident; ORCID